Shafaat Yar Khan
Assistant Professor of Economics, Syracuse University
I work on International Trade and International Macroeconomics. My empirical and quantitative research emphasizes the importance of trade dynamics in understanding the effects of policy changes and other aggregate shocks.
Fields: International Trade, International Macroeconomics
Working Papers
Recovering Credible Trade Elasticities from Incredible Trade Reforms (with Alessandria, Khederlarian, Ruhl. and Steinberg)
Latest draft
Supply Chain Recessions (with Alessandria, Khederlarian, Mix and Ruhl)
Unpacking Non-Tariff Measures: Beyond the Tip of the Iceberg (with Devaki Ghose and Angella Montfaucon)
Publications
Inventories, Integration, Productivity, and Welfare (with George Alessandria and Armen Khederlarian)
American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 2025
Trade War and Peace: U.S.-China Trade and Tariff Risk from 2015-2050 (with Alessandria, Khederlarian, Ruhl, and Steinberg)
Journal of International Economics, 2025.
Press: The Economist
Trade Policy Dynamics: Evidence from 60 years of U.S.-China Trade (with Alessandria, Khederlarian, Ruhl, and Steinberg)
Journal of Political Economy, 2025
Latest draft, NBER version, World Bank version, Slides
Press: The Economist, VoxChina
Inventories, Input Costs and Productivity Gains from Trade Liberalizations (with Armen Khederlarian)
International Economic Review, 2024
Latest Draft, World Bank version
Taking Stock of Trade Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from China's Pre-WTO Accession (with George Alessandria and Armen Khederlarian)
Journal of International Economics, 2024
Latest draft, NBER version, World Bank version
Press: VoxChina
The Aggregate Effects of Global and Local Supply Chain Disruptions: 2020-2022 (with Alessandria, Khederlarian, Mix and Ruhl)
Journal of International Economics, 2023 [working paper]
Press: VoxEU
How Does Trade Respond to Anticipated Tariff Changes? Evidence from NAFTA (with Armen Khederlarian)
Journal of International Economics, 2021 [working paper]
Work in Progress
Supply Chain Recessions (with Alessandria, Khederlarian, Mix and Ruhl)
Aggregate Productivity Gains from Trade Liberalization: Inventory Management Efficiency Channel (with George Alessandria and Armen Khederlarian)
[Slides]
The Durable Trade Effects of Temporary Export Restrictions: A Study of the 2008-2011 Food Crisis (with Ergys Islamaj and Aaditya Mattoo)
Teaching
Spring 2024 (Syracuse University)
Ph.D. level: Topics in International Economics (ECN865)
Undergraduate: Intermediate Macroeconomics
Summer 2018 (University of Rochester)
Principles of Economics [Evaluation] [Comments]
Policy Work
The Relative Cost of Non-Tariff Measures in Indonesia: A Benchmarking Exercise with other East Asian Economies, policy note with Bayu Agnimaruto and Angella Montfaucon
Malaysia Economic Monitor, June 2022: Catching Up, Section on external developments
East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2022: Braving the Storms, Section on Trade and box article on the effects of supply chain delays
Malaysia Economic Monitor, December 2021: Keeping Afloat, Box article on Malaysia's export recovery from the pandemic
East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2021: Long Covid, Section on trade and box article on the effects of Non-Tariff Measures
East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2021: Uneven Recovery, Section on trade
East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2020: From Containment to Recovery, Section on trade